Birdfeeding

Feb. 2nd, 2026 02:20 pm[personal profile] ysabetwordsmith
ysabetwordsmith: Cartoon of me in Wordsmith persona (Default)
Today is cloudy and cold.

I fed the birds.  I've seen a large flock of sparrows and a male cardinal.

I put out water for the birds.

EDIT 2/2/26 -- I did a bit of work around the patio.

I put out more birdseed and a new peanut suet cake.









.
 
chicating: I have a new dragon (Default)
But January this year was partly nauseating(Even as it picked up at the end) so this should represent a step forward.

Website Updates

Feb. 2nd, 2026 02:14 pm[personal profile] ysabetwordsmith
ysabetwordsmith: Cartoon of me in Wordsmith persona (Default)
Thanks to [personal profile] nsfwords, the series Quixotic Ideas is now up to date. \o/  This is upbeat fantasy with magic integrated into everyday life.

(no subject)

Feb. 2nd, 2026 12:00 pm[personal profile] greghousesgf
greghousesgf: (Horse)
Apart from the bldg manager being her usual rude bitchy self when I was paying my rent earlier this morning, I'm in a pretty good mood today. I had so much fun with my friends at the Chinese restaurant last night, we had Peking duck, General Tso's chicken, ginger beef fried rice and a couple of dim sums. I hadn't had Peking duck in decades but it was my birthday.

This is a brief but informative article at Nature Reviews Drug Discovery from folks at Boston Consulting Group looking at the 2025 drug approvals at the FDA. There were 54 such (excluding diagnostic imaging agents), which is consistent with the landscape since 2014 (the average since then has been exactly that!) 2005-2013 average, by contrast, was 30 new drug approvals. In fact, in that post 2014-period, there’s only been one year (2016, with 28 approvals) that wasn’t higher than any year in the 2015-2013 era. We are clearly approving a lot more drugs in this era.

But are we making more money from them? Total peak sales (inflation-adjusted) are indeed higher in the post 2014-era, as they certainly should be. But it’s quite possible that we’re looking at third year in a row of declining peak sales, which has not happened over the last 20 years at all. 

2022 peaks sales are listed as 114 billion, and 2023 as 94. Then 2024 is 81 billion (which is an upwards revision from the initial estimate of about 60 billion), and 2025 is estimated at 62 billion. Now that one will likely be revised upwards over the next year or two - that’s typically what happens, because we’re (a) not all that great at forecasting sales and (b) motivated not to overestimate them beforehand, preferring to surprise people with better-than-expected figures. But we’ll have to see if 2025 manages to not be that third year of decline.

Where is this trend coming from? Almost certainly due to a relative shortage of great big huge blockbuster drugs. As the article notes, only 4 of the approved drugs from 2025 are forecast to hit peak sales of over three billion per year. It’s not that the industry hasn’t had some underperforming years in the modern era (like 2108, with 62 approvals and $59 billion in peak sales, or 2020, with 56 approvals and $49 billion peak sales). But 2022, by contrast, had a relatively low 43 approvals but hit $114 billion in peak sales, and no one’s sure when and if we’ll get back to a figure like that.

I’d say that some of this is likely due to the more “orphan-y” small disease focus of drug development at many smaller companies. And you can’t ignore the more-targeted nature of modern drugs, particularly in oncology. This trend has been coming on for a long time, and as our knowledge increases of the different drivers behind what appear to be similar disease in a patient population, we’re likely to see even more of it. Oncology indeed was the most-represented drug category in this year’s list (16 of the 54, but it has to be said that the estimates for those drugs’ share of peak sales does hold its own (30% of the approvals, 36% of estimated peak sales).

We’ll revisit these figures in another year or two and see how they hold up. It will be interesting - likely not cheering, but definitely interesting - to see how four years of the current FDA leadership will affect these numbers as well. . .

james_davis_nicoll: (Default)


Eight death-metal miniatures games from OptimisticNL inspired by, and compatible with, the artpunk tabletop roleplaying game Mörk Borg.

Bundle of Holding: Forbidden Psalm

Dept of Memes

Feb. 2nd, 2026 11:50 am[personal profile] kaffy_r
kaffy_r: Japanese building w/flowers on blue ground (Blue Nippon)
Music Meme, Day 20

A song with a number in the title: 

One of the musical geniuses that Bob introduced me to years ago was Harry Nilsson. Until he helped me take a deep dive into Nilsson's work, I think I'd only heard "Everybody's Talking." After I emerged from the dive, I loved everything he ever wrote or performed. When he was young, his voice was angelic. After a few years of hard, hard living, it was no longer angelic, but it was still sweet. 

There are so many Nilsson songs I'd love to share with you - Jump Into the Fire, Good Old Desk, Remember, I Guess the Lord Must Be in New York City, and so many more - just for the joy of listening to his robustly, seriously whimsical lyrics. But the meme on Day 20 asks for music that has a number in its titles, so I'll stick with that. 

As it happens, there are two Nilsson songs with a number in the title. "One" is the first one, and it's beautiful. 

But Nilsson wrote another song with a number as its title: 1941. This is semi-autobiographical and is a perfect example of how Nilsson could mix whimsy with sorrow.


The previous days are available via this link. 


 
rebeccmeister: (Default)
No photos this time because I was too busy. Weather.gov said it was -3°F when I left the house, but then the thermometer on the back porch said +5°F, and I'm inclined to agree with the back porch thermometer.

I tried wearing a different face mask, to see if that helped reduce the fogging of my glasses, and it did! However, as best I can tell, the mask filter started to get clogged with ice crystals (O2 Designs mask, company now defunct). That started to make it so hard to breathe that I ripped off the mask by the time I reached the first major hill climb of the commute. By that point the air was warm enough that it didn't feel like I was losing *too* much body heat just by the act of breathing.

Anyway, this is going to be a ludicrously busy week now. Wish me luck...lots of animal wrangling and meetings of various sorts. Not boring, at least?

from the Arctic Ice Forum

Feb. 2nd, 2026 01:11 pm[personal profile] ljgeoff
ljgeoff: (Default)
Bruce Steele January 30, 2026, 04:50:10 PM (radio broadcaster and scientist)

"Winter ice formation in the Sea of Okhotsk drives very cold salty water to the bottom of the Okhotsk , it then slips out to the Pacific and South to where it is mixed with the South flowing Oyashio current and forms Pacific intermediate waters which move East across the Pacific and upwell along the North American continent about thirty years later. There is no deep water formation in the North Pacific and if ice in the Okhotsk gets weak enough I would suggest the intermediate water formation processes will begin to fail. I don't know all the biological implications but without the nutrients that are carried with the Intermediate waters the upwelling along the North American continent will cause much of its rich sea life to suffer declining health, thirty or forty years from now."

☔️ or ❄️?

Feb. 2nd, 2026 12:24 pm[personal profile] soemand
soemand: (Default)
Just checked the long‑range forecast for my wife’s cross‑country skiing adventures. So far things look decent through February 13—after that, the rain will likely wipe out whatever snow we’ve managed to accumulate. Long‑range forecasts can shift, of course, but getting a solid month or more of skiable conditions in our maritime climate is rare enough that I’ll take any good news.

As I’ve mentioned before, it doesn’t take much to change our fortunes. A shift of the storm track by as little as 50 nautical miles can mean the difference between a fresh snowfall and a cold, miserable rain. Life on the edge of the rain–snow line keeps things interesting.

(no subject)

Feb. 2nd, 2026 09:09 pm[personal profile] swingandswirl
swingandswirl: photo of three rabbits, with 'oh no! plot bunnies!' in black ransom note text on top left (plot bunnies)
Snowflake Challenge: A flatlay of a snowflake shaped shortbread cake, a mug with coffee, and a string of holiday lights on top of a rustic napkin.


Challenge #8

Talk about your creative process.

You know, I don't think I've ever sat down and thought through my creative process before. This should be fun.

My solo-written fic, as opposed to my cowrites (/waves to [personal profile] rhi , [personal profile] ilyena_sylph , [personal profile] t_vo0810 and others/) is one of two kinds, usually: either it's written for an exchange fic, or a bunny ups and grabs me. 

When I sign up for exchanges, I try and craft my sign-up to get specific recipients, although I try and make sure that I can write for all potential recipicients. (I've only hit 'oh God no DEFAULT' levels of DNW a couple of times, which considering my Cursed Exchange Luck, I'm pretty proud of.) Once I get my assignment, I sit with the prompt that calls to me the most, and see what kind of story I can create that fits both the wordcount requirement and what the recip wants. Depending on how much plot there is, I throw myself on rhi's mercy for help, lol. 

Once I've figured out what the story is, then I write it. Very rarely, I finish my first draft before deadline; usually I'm butting right up to it. (Being several hours ahead is a wonderful thing, sometimes. It feels like a sneaky little extension, lol.) I use the period between submission deadline and reveals to edit and polish my fic, although (thankfully) I write very clean drafts so there's rarely all that much editing, SPAG aside, to do. Sometimes my brain is a hunk of mouldy cheese and poor [personal profile] rhi has to talk me down and remind me that I am a good writer and my fic will look better once I have had a snack and a nap. 

When it comes to non-exchange fic, it usually starts with a bunny nibbling on me. Once the nibbling becomes too hard to ignore, I sit down and write - sometimes just scenes, sometimes snippets, sometimes whole-ass fic. Then I let the for-publishing stuff sit for a few days before going back over it, then getting it beta'd.

Regardless of whether it's exchange fic or for my own satisfaction, there's one step of the process I find utterly loathsome: titles. There's a reason most of my fics have either lyrics or quotes for titles - titling is the worst, even harder than summaries. I am in awe of people who find it easy. But works need titles, alas, and so far I've somehow managed, lol. 

And that's my creative process! Feel free to ask me any questions you may have. 

 

Music Monday

Feb. 2nd, 2026 08:20 am[personal profile] muccamukk
muccamukk: Elyanna singing, surrounded by emanata and hearts. (Music: Elyanna Hearts)

I used to love K'NAAN, but I hadn't seen this one, and ran into it because it was a past winner of the award Raye just got for "Ice Cream Man" (the Harry Belafonte Best Song For Social Change Award).
cimorene: closeup of Jeremy Brett as Holmes raising his eyebrows from behind a cup of steaming tea (eyebrows)
As a fan of Golden Age Detective stories I have incidentally read a huge variety of locked room mysteries, even though I don't especially like them more than other mysteries. Occasionally some of them are quite fun, actually, but as you read more and more of them a distinct pattern emerges, and you start just immediately going... Okay, was the murder actually done before the room was locked, or after it was unlocked?

And especially after reading two of John Dickson Carr's exasperating mysteries that are shrouded in heightened spookiness intended to make you wonder whether the solution is supernatural or faked to just LOOK supernatural, only for it to turn out that the corpse was stolen from the locked room before it was locked by the last guy in there, and then that the guy was killed by the last guy to leave before the room was locked (in this case before he was left alone on top of a tower with people watching the entrances).

This must get old even quicker for real fans of the locked room. My impression, without doing any tabulation, is that roughly 95% of locked room murders in GAD are done either before the room was locked or after it was unlocked. This has to take some of the excitement out of it, even if the fan is occupied in theorizing which person did it and exactly how.

Things

Feb. 2nd, 2026 03:29 pm[personal profile] oursin
oursin: Brush the Wandering Hedgehog by the fire (Default)

Like they would have painted a sinister sixth finger (come on down Mr Cromwell insisting on the warts): Hidden detail found in Anne Boleyn portrait was ‘witchcraft rebuttal’, say historians. Hmmm. Oh yeah? Am cynical.

***

Overlooked women artists (maybe I will mosey on down to the Courtauld....): The Courtauld’s riveting, revelatory and deeply researched show of ten lost female painters looks afresh at the golden age of British landscape art:

Some of Mary Smirke’s pictures were ascribed to her brother and Elizabeth Batty’s entire output was assumed to have been her son’s.

***

Men are poor stuff. Men are terribly poor stuff. Men covertly filming women at night and profiting from footage, BBC finds.

***

The Black Beauty in the White House: this is actually about the famous horse book, which was written in a house of that name. In Norfolk.

This is the story of a child from a coastal town in Norfolk, who would go on to influence life around the world and who is just as famous today. Not Horatio Nelson, but rather Anna Sewell, the author of Black Beauty. She managed to not only influence the lives of people but also horses (and possibly many other animals as well) with the story, published only a few months before her death.

***

This looks fascinating though I need to read it a lot more closely: Right place, right time: Luck, geography, and politics:

On 12th May 2020, Mass Observation collected c5,000 diaries from people across the UK. Many of these diaries mention luck and many of these luck stories are geography stories. Geographers, though, have not written much about luck. In this article, I review the literature on luck from within and beyond geography to construct a working definition and geographical approach to luck. The working definition describes luck as chance, fortuitous, unexpected events that were beyond the control of those for whom they are now significant. The geographical approach distinguishes four geographical aspects of luck: the geometry of luck; lucky places; right place, right time; and the practical sphere.

loganberrybunny: Election rosette (Rosette)
Public

The Gorton and Denton by-election on 26th February is going to be an interesting one. Andy Burnham was blocked by the Labour Party from being their candidate, something which a lot of people (including me) suspect will cost them the seat. The general view is that it's a fight between Green and Reform, with a lot depending on tactical voting. Right now my feeling is that the Greens have an advantage, though I have to be honest and say that's probably partly because I don't want Reform to win. So, right now, I reckon Green, Reform, Labour in that order – with Labour significantly behind the other two. The Lib Dems and Tories are no-hopers in this constituency anyway.
osprey_archer: (books)
Like many of Solzhenitsyn’s books, In the First Circle has a tortured publication history. It was first written in the 1950s, revised in vain hope of official Soviet publication in 1964, published in the West in 1968, and then republished for the first time in its full form in 2008, which is the version I read. So if you’ve read the book but this review sounds like it came out of an alternate universe, possibly you read the earlier version.

The biggest change was to the action that kicks off the novel. In the first published version, Volodin makes a telephone call to a doctor to warn him not to share information about an experimental drug with his Western colleagues, as the security apparatus would consider that a traitorous act. In the 2008 version, Volodin calls the US embassy to warn them that a Soviet spy is going to try to steal the secrets of the nuclear bomb.

In both versions, this telephone call kicks off a flurry of activity in a sharaksha - that is, a special secret prison where prisoners with scientific skills work on making inventions for the state. One of these inventions is a process for identifying the voice of a caller on an anonymous phone call, which has just jumped to number one priority for the security services.

In other hands, this premise might set off a suspenseful game of spy-vs-spy. In fact, the New York Times review quoted on the cover says the story is “filled with suspense,” which frankly makes me suspect that the reviewer read a synopsis rather than the book, which could not be less interested in suspense.

Instead, Solzhenitsyn uses this incident as a kaleidoscope to explore not only the world of the sharaksha, but all the many lives touched by the existence of this special prison: not just the prisoners themselves, but the guards, the guards’ supervisors, the entire security apparatus up to Stalin himself, not to mention the prisoner Nerzhin’s wife and her fellow grad students and the young man she’s been flirting with, even as Nerzhin flirts with one of the female state employees in the prison…

Ostensibly, the First Circle of the title is a reference to the sharaksha, Dante’s first circle of Hell where the virtuous pagans live: the nicest part of Hell, but still Hell. But in fact it seemed to me that this circle expanded to include the lives of everyone touched by the prison, perhaps everyone in the Soviet Union in 1950. A grad student struggling over whether to turn informer or risk having her thesis failed if she refuses. A minion of Stalin’s struggling to find a reply when Stalin puckishly suggests that if they bring the death penalty back, the minion might be the first to go! Stalin himself, miserable and alone, isolated by the terror he has created in everyone around him.

What will you do to make yourself comfortable? Who will you hurt to make your own life better? Solzhenitsyn is not an ascetic for asceticism’s sake - some of the most charming scenes in the book are little moments of comfort that the prisoners have managed to scrape out - but he is absolutely opposed to purchasing comfort, safety, or indeed even survival at the cost of someone else.

(Once Solzhenitsyn was exiled to America, Americans were apparently distressed by his disdain for American materialism, but we really should have seen it coming. We are after all a nation of people largely happy to treat “Well of course Amazon exploits its workers and undermines local businesses and is simply overall evil, but it’s so convenient” as a clinching moral argument in favor of shopping at Amazon.)

A note about how to read this book: I struggled for the first hundred pages or so because I was trying to keep track of all the characters. As Solzhenitsyn introduces a new batch of characters every five chapters or so, this swiftly becomes impossible, especially because he never stops doing this. You might expect that at some point he’d decide he’s assembled the whole cast, but no, right up till quite near the end he’s happy to hare off for two chapters to go on a digression (fascinating! Rich in psychological and philosophical detail!) about a character we’re never going to see again.

As you can imagine, trying to keep track of all these characters (each of whom has their own little cast of side characters) is very frustrating, and my reading experience became much more pleasant when I realized it was also unnecessary. Much better just to read the book like you’re floating down a river. The most important characters will bob up again and again, so you’ll come to know them quite well. Other characters may just be islands that you’ll float past, interesting in their own right of course, but it’s also fine if you can’t remember all the details about Yakonov and his ex-girlfriend who goes to church because the regime is anti-church, which all occurred decades ago so why are we having two chapters about it now? Well, because it’s another little chip of colored glass in our kaleidoscope, that’s why.

And if it turns out a character you thought was an island is actually a boat who keeps floating along, so you do need to know that name after all? Well, that’s why there’s a character index at the start of the book.

Solzhenitsyn is not the least interested in suspense, in plot. He’s interested in character, in exploring different viewpoints on how to live in the world, and in exploring different facets of that world until it feels like a real and breathing place. The book is nearly 750 pages, but in the end, I still wanted to keep on exploring.

enology

Feb. 2nd, 2026 07:38 am[personal profile] prettygoodword
prettygoodword: text: words are sexy (Default)
enology (US) or oenology (UK) (ee-NOL-uh-jee) - n., the science and study of wine and winemaking.


As distinct from viticulture / viniculture, the science of cultivating and harvesting grapes, an essential precursor but a separate specialty. The latter terms were both coined in the 1870s from Latin roots, while (o)enology dates to around 1810 and is coined from Ancient Greek roots oînos, wine + -logĭ́ā, study of (from lógos, explanation).

---L.

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sistawendy: a head shot of me smiling, taken in front of Canlis for a 2021 KUOW article (Default)
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